Search results for "Branching process"
showing 10 items of 12 documents
Poisson convergence on continuous time branching random walks and multistage carcinogenesis.
1982
A theorem for Poisson convergence on realizations of two-dimensional Branching Random Walks with an underlying continuous time Markov Branching Process is proved. This result can be used to gain an approximation for the number of cells having sustained a certain deficiency after a long time in multistage carcinogenesis.
Jet evolution in a dense medium: event-by-event fluctuations and multi-particle correlations
2017
International audience; We study the gluon distribution produced via successive medium-induced branchings by an energetic jet propagating through a weakly-coupled quark-gluon plasma. We show that under suitable approximations, the jet evolution is a Markovian stochastic process, which is exactly solvable. For this process, we construct exact analytic solutions for all the n-point correlation functions describing the gluon distribution in the space of energy [M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Event-by-event fluctuations in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 05 (2016) 008. arXiv: arXiv:1601.03629 , doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP05(2016)008 , M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Multi-particle correlati…
Including Covariates in the ETAS Model Triggered Seismicity
2020
The paper proposes a stochastic process that improves the assessment of seismic events in space and time, considering a contagion model (branching process) within a regression-like framework to take covariates into account. The proposed approach develops the Forward Likelihood for prediction (FLP) method for estimating the ETAS model, including covariates in the model specification of the epidemic component. A simulation study is carried out for analysing the misspecification model effect under several scenarios. Also an application to the Italian catalogue is reported, together with the reference to the developed R package.
A GALTON-WATSON BRANCHING PROCESS IN VARYING ENVIRONMENTS WITH ESSENTIALLY CONSTANT OFFSPRING MEANS AND TWO RATES OF GROWTH1
1983
Summary A Galton-Watson process in varying environments (Zn), with essentially constant offspring means, i.e. E(Zn)/mnα∈(0, ∞), and exactly two rates of growth is constructed. The underlying sample space Ω can be decomposed into parts A and B such that (Zn)n grows like 2non A and like mnon B (m > 4).
A Galton–Watson process with a threshold
2016
Abstract In this paper we study a special class of size dependent branching processes. We assume that for some positive integer K as long as the population size does not exceed level K, the process evolves as a discrete-time supercritical branching process, and when the population size exceeds level K, it evolves as a subcritical or critical branching process. It is shown that this process does die out in finite time T. The question of when the mean value E(T) is finite or infinite is also addressed.
Including covariates in a space-time point process with application to seismicity
2020
AbstractThe paper proposes a spatio-temporal process that improves the assessment of events in space and time, considering a contagion model (branching process) within a regression-like framework to take covariates into account. The proposed approach develops the forward likelihood for prediction method for estimating the ETAS model, including covariates in the model specification of the epidemic component. A simulation study is carried out for analysing the misspecification model effect under several scenarios. Also an application to the Italian seismic catalogue is reported, together with the reference to the developed R package.
Non-parametric Estimation of the Death Rate in Branching Diffusions
2002
We consider finite systems of diffusing particles in R with branching and immigration. Branching of particles occurs at position dependent rate. Under ergodicity assumptions, we estimate the position-dependent branching rate based on the observation of the particle process over a time interval [0, t]. Asymptotics are taken as t → ∞. We introduce a kernel-type procedure and discuss its asymptotic properties with the help of the local time for the particle configuration. We compute the minimax rate of convergence in squared-error loss over a range of Holder classes and show that our estimator is asymptotically optimal.
Infinite rate mutually catalytic branching in infinitely many colonies: The longtime behavior
2012
Consider the infinite rate mutually catalytic branching process (IMUB) constructed in [Infinite rate mutually catalytic branching in infinitely many colonies. Construction, characterization and convergence (2008) Preprint] and [Ann. Probab. 38 (2010) 479-497]. For finite initial conditions, we show that only one type survives in the long run if the interaction kernel is recurrent. On the other hand, under a slightly stronger condition than transience, we show that both types can coexist.
A PHASE TRANSITION FOR LARGE VALUES OF BIFURCATING AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS
2019
We describe the asymptotic behavior of the number $$Z_n[a_n,\infty )$$ of individuals with a large value in a stable bifurcating autoregressive process, where $$a_n\rightarrow \infty $$ . The study of the associated first moment is equivalent to the annealed large deviation problem of an autoregressive process in a random environment. The trajectorial behavior of $$Z_n[a_n,\infty )$$ is obtained by the study of the ancestral paths corresponding to the large deviation event together with the environment of the process. This study of large deviations of autoregressive processes in random environment is of independent interest and achieved first. The estimates for bifurcating autoregressive pr…
ETAS Space–Time Modeling of Chile Triggered Seismicity Using Covariates: Some Preliminary Results
2021
Chilean seismic activity is one of the strongest in the world. As already shown in previous papers, seismic activity can be usefully described by a space–time branching process, such as the ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences) model, which is a semiparametric model with a large time-scale component for the background seismicity and a small time-scale component for the triggered seismicity. The use of covariates can improve the description of triggered seismicity in the ETAS model, so in this paper, we study the Chilean seismicity separately for the North and South area, using some GPS-related data observed together with ordinary catalog data. Our results show evidence that the use of s…